Nutsin 7:52 Sat Jan 15
Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
|
Lots of talk here that he is about to invade Ukraine.
NATO and the US won’t get involved but heavy sanctions have been threatened and Putin has threatened ending all diplomatic ties with the west.
Latest is that Putin will stage an attack making it look like Ukraine starts the conflict.
What’s being reported over there?
Is it about to kick off?
|
|
|
Replies - In Chronological Order ( Show Newest Messages First)
Darby_
8:10 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
The usual crew will be on here in a minute to say that it’s the West’s fault and that Putin was forced to invade Ukraine.
Mostly it’s happening now because Putin’s popularity is collapsing after a million Russians died from COVID and the Russian economy has been going backwards for almost a decade. After you’ve whipped up a nationalist hysteria, everyone who opposes you is a traitor and “CIA thug”, right? Once your opponents have been demonised as spies and terrorists, you can lock them all up and torture them like they’re doing in Khazakstan.
If he does invade, I think he’ll try to limit it to the area north of the Crimea. He’ll probably want to secure water supplies for the Crimea and leave it at that. In the process though, Russia’s economy could well be broken for good by sanctions.
|
goose
9:03 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
Let’s see how clever we look when Putin turns the energy taps off.
Or worse, when China decide to step in to protect their investments.
|
riosleftsock
9:05 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
I might watch Wag the Dog again tonight, to remind me how this plays out
|
Coffee
9:10 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
rios :-)
|
BRANDED
10:25 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
This analysis suggests Russia can ride out sanctions more easily this time
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to
|
goose
10:30 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
Putin is the perfect distraction for the West while their economies fall apart.
Don’t worry about your soaring food & energy prices or unemployment, worry about the pantomime villain in Russia.
|
Hammer and Pickle
10:32 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to
|
riosleftsock
10:40 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
goose 10:30 Sat Jan 15
I'm amazed people can't see it.
|
PwoperNaughtyButNot
10:42 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
Why would people believe that Putin would stage a fake attack
And then not believe that western governments would ever conspire to do things against the people’s best interests
Or is it not belief and just happy to accept what the media tells us?
|
Hammer and Pickle
10:51 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
The article is long and detailed though not always focused on its main argument. There is a lot about how Ukraine is a weak vassal-state of the West and it’s internal politics being anti-Russian. The main case for Russian impunity to sanctions tends to be confined to its currency reserve and hold on the global energy market. No mention is made of the nature of the sanctions the NATO and the EU have already signalled they are ready to impose.
So the article, while worthy of a read, is flawed. On the other hand, if he does pull the trigger, and Russia does lose access to the SWIFT system, the shit really will start rotating very rapidly indeed for everyone.
|
RBshorty
11:42 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
The arsehole about to drop out of the world economy. I would be more worried about certain people even higher up the food chain than Vladimir. As others have said. This is just a side show.
|
Hammer and Pickle
11:53 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
The main concern is how easily Putin's propaganda machine exerts influence on ruling parties by playing on the fears and frustrations of key sections of democratic nations' electorates: from climate change and energy policy to race and LGBT issues, that machine influences your views. The vast nature of the anti-Covid vaccination campaign is a perfect example of how the Kremlin machine operates and what purpose it is designed to serve.
|
ludo21
12:10 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
Russia started moving troops to the Ukrainian border in the spring of 2021, Russian farmers were up in arms as all goods trains were taken over by the military moving tanks and troops to the west…. read an article in the Times (I think) in early December when they actually gave the date that Putin would invade, was in the last week of January.
There is only so long that Putin will keep 100,000 troops mobilised and ready to go without something triggering an invasion… very easy to blame Ukrainian separatists for provoking the attack.
If that happens will China take the US being distracted as an opportunity to invade Taiwan?
|
Darby_
12:22 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
goose 9:03 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
Or worse, when China decide to step in to protect their investments.
---
China has already waved the white flag, goose son.
One of Xi's most important retainers, Cui Tiankai, has attacked Wolf Warrior diplomacy and said:
"In principle, we should not fight a war we are not prepared for, a war we are not sure of winning, a war of anger and attrition."
Another bully who backed down when faced with even a small amount of opposition.
|
goose
12:46 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
Was it last week the Chinese gave a very gentle warning about outside countries getting involved in Kazakhstan?
Too many commodities that they need come from that part of the world.
|
Nurse Ratched
12:52 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
His biggest mistake was annoying Pickle - his days are numbered.
|
master
12:53 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
Does this mean the payments we all get from Vlad will stop?
|
Nurse Ratched
12:57 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
😲
|
Mike Oxsaw
12:58 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
All 3 major powers (The West, Russia & China) have significant internal issues that would, a century or less ago, been "solved" by involvement against an external "enemy".
None of the 3 can afford to actually do so because none have (access to) the resources needed.
It's possible that they have all (secretly) agreed that there needs to be some serious contrition upon which they can focus their individual population's attention.
Afghanistan does seem to be a common point here as all 3 have an interest, but I don't see that as significant enough. Likewise Iran.
From my limited viewpoint, that would leave a brief thermonuclear exchange between India & Pakistan the sort of attention-grabbing event needed to take the heat off their own maladministration.
|
Hammer and Pickle
1:01 Sat Jan 15
Re: Is Putin about to make a big mistake?
|
Of course his days are numbered, which is also why he is so mauve: you just don’t know what he’s planning.
|
| 
